A lot of hoopla on the right about the FBI revising 2022 crime numbers higher. Here’s my take:
▪️According to these revised stats, violent crime did rise from ‘21-‘22, but then fell in ‘23, which many are leaving out. Violent crime is down from the ‘20 spike and the crime rate is actually near historic lows. Murders and murder rates also fell from ‘22-‘23, but are still elevated from the mid 2010s lows.
▪️It’s possible that future revisions could raise ‘23 violent crime numbers above ‘22 levels, which would indicate crime is trending worse. But until that happens it’s pure speculation, these are the numbers. Also, it’s highly doubtful that murders would be revised above ‘22 levels as it would require a massive upward revision, and you can look at many major cities’ stats showing murder has dropped.
▪️Generally, violent crime and murders were on a steady decline for decades until about the mid 2010s. Then, this progress was reversed when it spiked in 2020. Violent crime is down since then, but still hasn’t gotten back to the lows.
▪️Statistics don’t capture everything, and many rightly feel like crime is up in their areas. I like to use the example of stores locking up products. If stores are locking up things they didn’t 10 years ago, crime is up in your area, regardless of how many thefts are reported by police stats. Walk into a CVS in downtown Sacramento and there’s barely anything that isn’t locked up. You don’t need stats to tell you crime is high there.
It’s bizarre to see them seesaw back and forth that Trump is totally clueless and aloof, just golfing all day, then all of a sudden he’s a dangerous king/dictator who’s diligently plotting to seize absolute power.
▪️This one is frustrating because, while it’s nice to see the vigor and speed that DOGE is acting with, they’re also sloppy with some of their findings. This is not some bombshell, millions of dead people’s SS numbers aren’t being paid out to fraudsters.
▪️This problem has been known for some time, you can read an inspector general’s report from 2015 about millions of names on the SS “numident” not being correctly annotated for deaths, even though they were older than 112 (the oldest known American at the time).
https://oig-files.ssa.gov/audits/full/A-06-14-34030_0.pdf
▪️There are innocent explanations for some of these. Expatriates that died outside the country, for example. Or immigrants given temporary work permit who returned to their country, people issued new numbers for various reasons, etc. However, most are simply due to the govt not diligently keeping track of deaths.
▪️It’s embarrassing that the govt has millions of numbers on the numident that are ...
