A lot of hoopla on the right about the FBI revising 2022 crime numbers higher. Here’s my take:
▪️According to these revised stats, violent crime did rise from ‘21-‘22, but then fell in ‘23, which many are leaving out. Violent crime is down from the ‘20 spike and the crime rate is actually near historic lows. Murders and murder rates also fell from ‘22-‘23, but are still elevated from the mid 2010s lows.
▪️It’s possible that future revisions could raise ‘23 violent crime numbers above ‘22 levels, which would indicate crime is trending worse. But until that happens it’s pure speculation, these are the numbers. Also, it’s highly doubtful that murders would be revised above ‘22 levels as it would require a massive upward revision, and you can look at many major cities’ stats showing murder has dropped.
▪️Generally, violent crime and murders were on a steady decline for decades until about the mid 2010s. Then, this progress was reversed when it spiked in 2020. Violent crime is down since then, but still hasn’t gotten back to the lows.
▪️Statistics don’t capture everything, and many rightly feel like crime is up in their areas. I like to use the example of stores locking up products. If stores are locking up things they didn’t 10 years ago, crime is up in your area, regardless of how many thefts are reported by police stats. Walk into a CVS in downtown Sacramento and there’s barely anything that isn’t locked up. You don’t need stats to tell you crime is high there.
It’s funny to see the left use the same conspiratorial rhetoric as the right did a year ago regarding the jobs numbers being downwardly revised. So many on the right, who knew nothing of how the jobs numbers are calculated or why they revise them, were convinced the downward revisions were a conspiracy to help Biden win.
If people want to have a debate about the birth death model or the survey methods, ok, but that’s not what’s happening here. Most people are under the delusion that the BLS report is the govt reporting every job created and lost, and are thus easily swayed it’s rigged when it suits their political ends.
This is almost laughingly misleading, as it leaves out everything before the letter.
▪️After being repeatedly lampooned by the Smothers Brothers over Vietnam, Johnson finally had enough. One night at 3 am he called the head of CBS William Paley, demanding that he “get those bastards off my back.”
▪️Paley then asked the heads of CBS entertainment to get them to back off of LBJ. However, instead of backing off the Smothers Brothers doubled down, booking a folk musician performing “Waist Deep,” an anti-war song about a soldier being stuck in the mud while “the big fool says to push on,” clearly a dig at LBJ.
▪️At the last minute, CBS cut the song from the pre-taped show to the outrage of the Smothers. They continued to push the boundaries off and on for the rest of his presidency, with CBS sometimes cutting segments that they thought went too far. Basically, it was a soft form of censorship.
▪️It wasn’t until Johnson made his surprise announcement not to run in 1968 ...
